The NFL doesn't appreciate tight ends enough. Smart teams can take advantage

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Warren Sharp

FOX Sports NFL Writer

Incorporating skilled tight ends into NFL offenses is more efficient now than ever before. Both on and off the field.

For years, NFL target depth was relatively consistent.

From 2006-2012, the NFL averaged 8.5 air yards per pass attempt, was never higher than 8.65 and never lower than 8.35.
From 2013-2017, it stayed consistent at roughly 8.3 air yards per pass attempt.

But starting in 2018, target depth has slowly and consistently declined:

Last year’s target depth of 7.7 yards was a full yard shorter than it was in 2011, and the shortest in the modern passing era.

With this decline in target depth, it might seem intuitive that quarterbacks are releasing the ball more quickly. But that isn’t true. QBs averaged 2.66 seconds per attempt last year, the highest it’s been in a decade.

In the 2014-2017 span, time to throw was in the 2.5 second range. Only 25% of attempts came after 3.0 seconds. Now, that has increased to 30% of attempts coming after 3.0 seconds.

This is in large part due to how defenses have adjusted to slow down quarterbacks and prevent big plays in the passing game.

The shift in defensive philosophy has been massive even over the last three years.

Blitz rates, once up in the 29-30% range in 2013-2015, are down at 25-26% the last two years.
In 2020, man coverage was used 31.1% of the time. That decreased to 27.5% in 2021 and 25.1% last year.

The rate of no-blitz zone coverage has increased dramatically in the last couple of years.

In 2020, it was used just 51.9% of the time. That increased to 55.2% in 2021 and 56.6% last year.
Defenses are playing more two-high shells, up from 34.5% in 2020 to 36.6% in 2021 and 38.2% last year.

These highly correlated changes encourage quarterbacks to hold onto the ball, throw underneath more frequently and target holes in the zone.

Here’s a look at efficiency by target against no-blitz zone defense:

Tight ends: 54.6% success rate, +0.17 expected points added per attempt, 7.8 YPA, 74.0% completion rate
Wide receivers: 51.4% success, +0.17 EPA/att, 8.3 YPA, 67.8% completion rate
Running backs: 44.4% success, +0.01 EPA/att, 5.7 YPA, 80.6% completion rate

Here are the numbers specifically against two-high shell coverage without a blitz:

TEs: 54.6% success, +0.15 EPA/att, 7.7 YPA, 74.7% completion rate
WRs: 50.7% success, +0.17 EPA/att, 8.3 YPA, 68.1% completion rate
RBs: 44.8% success, +0.01 EPA/att, 5.7 YPA, 80.6% completion rate

Tight end targets are seeing substantially more success and efficiency, with only a modest drop in average yardage vs the more en vogue style of defense which limits wide receiver explosiveness down the field.

The efficiency edge tight end targets offer is magnified when you exclude deeper passes and focus on what NFL quarterbacks are throwing most often: short passes.

On early-down passes thrown 8 or fewer air yards aaginst 2-high shell zone defense without a blitz:

TEs: 52.7% success, +0.06 EPA/att, 6.1 YPA, 81.0% completion rate
WRs: 48.6% success, -0.01 EPA/att, 5.6 YPA, 78.9% completion rate
RBs: 45.0% success, +0.01 EPA/att, 5.6 YPA, 81.8% completion rate

These passes targeting tight ends are far more efficient by every measure than targeting WRs (or RBs). And the efficiency isn’t limited to surprise passes coming out of heavy sets such as 12, 13 or 21 personnel.

In these situations, tight end targets from 11 personnel still average 52.1% success, +0.06 EPA/att and 6.2 YPA. We have seen some teams begin to make some adjustments in this direction.

Last year, 21.1% of all passes were thrown to tight ends. That was the league’s highest rate since 2015.

Not only are tight end targets now highly efficient against trending defensive concepts, but these players represent a huge efficiency edge off the field, too.

They’re underpaid. The average top-five TE makes $14.9 million/year. The average top-five WR makes $27.4 million/year.

That’s nearly twice as expensive for the top of the WR market as the top of the TE market.

For context:

This style of defense has actually increased the efficiency of tight ends in the passing game while slightly devaluing wide receivers.

Let’s examine the last two years, when defenses started to blitz less and play zone more often.

Since teams are intelligently passing more frequently on early downs, let’s focus on early-down passes.

Elite tight ends like Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Mark Andrews all average fewer dollars per year than WRs like Hunter Renfrow, Allen Robinson and Courtland Sutton.

It’s absurd.

Particularly when you factor in this nugget:

Travis Kelce leads the NFL in receiving yardage since 2015.

That’s right. His 9,482 receiving yards since 2015 are more than any other player in the NFL. And yet he has made the 20th most money among all receivers during that span.

We’ve obviously only discussed what these tight ends provide offenses as receivers. But they also can be valuable as run blockers and pass protectors in ways most wide receivers cannot.

There is no reason elite tight ends should be paid as little as they currently are.

For as long as this inequity continues, the smartest teams in the NFL will continue to employ elite tight ends, who contribute far more worth than they are paid, especially against the modern defensive constructs.

It’s no surprise that the Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens and Eagles all have signed their tight ends to the largest contracts at their position in the NFL, nor is it a surprise that these teams have seen these tight ends contribute to their incredible team success over the last few years.

More teams need to prioritize finding solid tight-end options, and it looks like a few will be available in this draft class.

NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah recently said this: “The tight end group is the best I’ve seen in the last 10 years. I have 11 tight ends that I have top-three-round grades on, which is a ridiculous number. It is just a really, really good group.”

Sharp Football Analysis’ draft expert Ryan McCrystal added this: “It’s sort of a throwback class. Some coaches will probably be more excited about the group than others depending on their offense. There aren’t any of those prospects with crazy athleticism that usually are in the Day 2 mix, but most of the top prospects are well-balanced in terms of blocking and receiving skills. Michael Mayer, Luke Musgrave, Luke Schoonmaker in particular stand out as guys who can probably contribute immediately because they’ll be trusted as blockers, which is often an area that holds rookie tight ends back.”

[Read Rob Rang’s 2023 NFL Draft tight end rankings: Dalton Kincaid leads unique top 10]

McCrystal currently has the Jaguars and Cowboys drafting tight ends in the first round.

As a counter to modern defenses, more teams need to incorporate tight ends into their early-down passing offense.

But an even larger issue is the glaring pay inequity for the top tight ends in the NFL.

And for this reason, top tight ends represent a big efficiency edge, both on and off the field.

Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He is the founder of Sharp Football Analysis and has worked as a consultant for league franchises while also previously contributing to ESPN and The Ringer, among other outlets. He studied engineering and worked professionally in the engineering field before using his statistical acumen to create predictive football models. You can follow Warren on Twitter at @SharpFootball.

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