#6 Oklahoma vs Kansas State | NCAAF Betting Analysis & Prediction

While Oklahoma is unbeaten and ranked No. 6 in the nation, the Sooners have not looked all that impressive at times this season. However, they are still double-digit favorites on the NCAAF odds for Saturday’s Big 12 matchup at Kansas State.

How to Bet Oklahoma at Kansas State NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

  • When: Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
  • Where: Bill Snyder Family Stadium
  • TV: Fox
  • Stream: Fox Sports Go
  • Radio: Tunein.com
  • Opening NCAAF Lines: Oklahoma -10.5 (total 52.5)

Last Season

Oklahoma was upset at home by Kansas State last year, 38-35. Skylar Thompson passed for 334 yards and ran for three touchdowns, and the Wildcats rallied from 21 points down with a 50-yard field goal by Blake Lynch with 4:32 remaining providing the margin of victory. Deuce Vaughn caught four passes for 129 yards and ran for a touchdown for the Wildcats. It was Kansas State’s first-ever road win against a top-three team in the AP poll (OU was ranked third). Oklahoma outgained the Wildcats 517 yards to 400 but had four turnovers to none for KSU. Spencer Rattler passed for 387 yards and four touchdowns, but he threw three interceptions.

Oklahoma leads the all-time series, 76-21-4, including a 37-9-3 mark in Manhattan.

Why Bet on Oklahoma?

The Sooners (4-0) escaped West Virginia last week 16-13 on Gabe Brkic’s 30-yard field goal as time expired. Oklahoma started its final possession at its 8-yard line with 3:39 remaining. Quarterback Spencer Rattler completed all six of his passes for 54 yards on the final drive to get the Sooners into scoring range. The final drive was 14 plays and 80 yards.

The OU defense allowed just 226 total yards — the fewest total yards OU has allowed against a conference opponent since the 2019 season (219 by TCU). Oklahoma allowed West Virginia just 47 rushing yards. West Virginia gained 75 yards on its opening possession but only 151 yards the remainder of the game.

Sooners QB Spencer Rattler completed 26-of-36 passes for 256 yards with a touchdown – he has been very inconsistent. Oklahoma’s 57 offensive rushing yards were its fewest since 2012 (15 rushing yards in a 30-13 loss to Notre Dame). It was the first time Oklahoma has trailed at halftime (10-7) in a home game since Sept. 17, 2016 (trailed Ohio State 35-17).,

However, the Sooners have won 12 straight, good for the second-longest streak in the country. It is Oklahoma’s 14th win streak of 10 or more games in its history and is its longest since winning 14 in a row in the 2016 and ’17 seasons (last 10 games of 2016 and first four of ’17).

Rattler leads the Big 12 in passing offense (254.3 ypg), completions (100; next most is 77), completion percentage (74.1) and passing TDs (8; tied), and ranks second with 10 total TDs.

The Sooners have won 26 of their last 28 true road games and are 15-2 in such contests under fourth-year head coach Lincoln Riley. Dating back to the start of the 2012 season, Oklahoma is 43-8 (.843) in regular season games away from home. OU has scored at least 30 points in 44 of those 51 contests.

Saturday will mark Oklahoma’s seventh straight against K-State when the Wildcats are unranked in the AP poll (the Sooners are 4-2 in the previous six). The road team in the OU-Kansas State series has won seven of the last 10 meetings. The Sooners are 7-2 in Manhattan in the Big 12 era (losses in 1996 and 2019) and have scored at least 31 points in all nine meetings (averaging 44.7).

Why Bet on Kansas State?

K-State (3-1) was beaten 31-20 at Oklahoma State last week. Kansas State hadn’t allowed an opponent to score 24 points this season. Oklahoma State put up 24 unanswered points in less than 18 minutes. The Wildcats trailed 31-13 at halftime and couldn’t scratch back within single digits the rest of the way.

The nation’s leader in non-offensive touchdowns since 1999, Kansas State got its first one of the year on a 99-yard kickoff return by Malik Knowles in the first quarter. It was the Wildcats’ 123rd non-offensive touchdown since 1999. Additionally, it was K-State’s 56th kickoff- or punt-return touchdown since 2005, which is also the nation’s best.

Sophomore quarterback Jared Lewis came off the bench to complete 10 of 19 passes for 148 yards with one touchdown and one interception after starter Will Howard suffered an injury. Howard, in his first career start in a full-capacity road environment, went 4 of 12 for 50 yards and had three carries for a team-high 28 yards. However, Howard also suffered one costly lost fumble late in the first quarter that resulted in a touchdown and the Wildcats trailed 21-10.

K-State was without sixth-year senior quarterback Skylar Thompson for a second-straight game. Thompson injured his right leg early in the game against Southern Illinois on September 11 and is not expected to play in this one.

The Wildcats have rushed for 739 yards through four games – led by Deuce Vaughn’s 393 yards – while surrendering just 75.2 yards per game on the ground to rank 11th in the nation. Vaughn saw a five-game streak of 100-yard games come to an end last week, which were the most by a Wildcat since Darren Sproles had five in 2003.

K-State holds a 15-10 all-time record in Big 12 home openers, as this is, which includes a win last year against Texas Tech. The only other meeting between these two schools in Big 12 play in K-State’s Big 12 home opener was a 31-21 Sooner win in 2004.

Game Trends

  • Sooners are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
  • Sooners are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
  • Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
  • Wildcats are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 conference games.
  • Wildcats are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog.
  • Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Expert Prediction

  • Oklahoma 30, Kansas State 23

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